What to Know About the New Covid Variants – New York Times

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What to Know About the New Covid Variants
New York Times. December 27, 2023. Dana Smith

JN.1 has overtaken HV.1 as the leading variant in the U.S. The latest vaccines provide some protection against each of them.

For the past year, Covid-19 variants have circulated in a sort of alphabet soup. Right now, two variants, JN.1 and HV.1, comprise more than half of Covid cases in the United States.

JN.1 accounted for 44 percent of cases as of late December, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. On Dec. 18, the World Health Organization named it as the latest “variant of interest,” meaning it has genetic changes that give it an advantage and that its prevalence is growing globally.

The second leading variant, HV.1, emerged in the United States at the end of the summer and was the most prevalent variant for much of the fall. By late December, it accounted for 22 percent of cases. Both HV.1 and JN.1 are distantly related to the original Omicron strain that emerged at the end of 2021.

Here’s what to know about JN.1, HV.1 and the variants they emerged from, which also continue to circulate.

EG.5 & HV.1The first notable variant of the fall was EG.5, which became dominant in the United States in August. Its numbers have slowly declined after peaking in September, and are now down to about 5 percent.
More on Covid-19JN.1: The Covid variant has become the most common strain of the virus spreading across the United States. Here’s what to know. N95 Companies: Project N95 and Mask-C, two face mask providers, said they were closing, a sign of the slow and steady decline of what was once a much-sought-after item. Omicron: In the two years since its emergence, the dominant variant of the coronavirus has proved to be not only staggeringly infectious, but an evolutionary marvel, challenging many assumptions virologists had before the pandemic. Long Covid: As more young Americans report serious cognitive problems, scientists suggest that the increase captures the effects of long Covid, most likely in addition to other effects of the pandemic, including psychological distress.EG.5 — also called Eris — is a descendant of the Omicron variant XBB.1.9.2 and has one notable mutation that helps it to evade antibodies developed by the immune system in response to earlier variants and vaccines. That mutation meant that more people were susceptible to EG.5 when it emerged, said Andrew Pekosz, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health.

HV.1 is descended from EG.5 and carries the same immune-evading mutation. It was the leading variant in the United States from October until mid-December. Given the overlap between the two variants, it’s unclear exactly how HV.1 overtook EG.5, but one of the few additional mutations in HV.1 likely gave it an edge over its predecessor.

“Whenever a new variant dominates, then by definition it has an advantage,” said Dr. Dan Barouch, the head of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.

Neither EG.5 nor HV.1 appear to be more contagious or more likely to cause severe illness than earlier variants. Diagnostic tests and treatments such as Paxlovid also continue to be effective against them. Perhaps more important, recent research, published as a preprint paper in December, shows that antibodies produced in response to the new vaccines, which target a related XBB variant, are protective against both EG.5 and HV.1.BA.2.86 & JN.1Another variant that scientists started keeping a close tab on this fall is BA.2.86, nicknamed Pirola. This variant worried experts because of the number of mutations it carries in the spike protein, which is what the virus uses to infect human cells and what our immune systems use to identify it.

According to Jesse Bloom, a professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center who specializes in virus evolution, the mutations in BA.2.86’s spike protein represent “an evolutionary jump” as big as the difference between the original coronavirus strain and the first Omicron variant.

Adding to the concern, early data indicated that the new vaccines may not be very effective against BA.2.86. However, evidence has since emerged that the boosters stimulate a modest number of antibodies that recognize BA.2.86, suggesting that the vaccines do provide some protection.

Another study found that BA.2.86 may not be as transmissible as other forms of the virus.

BA.2.86 did not take off like scientists initially feared, but the variant evolved to produce JN.1, which has spread quickly. According to preliminary research released in November, JN.1 carries an additional mutation that gives it extra immune-evading capabilities.

The preprint paper testing how the new vaccines performed against HV.1 also showed that they produced antibodies effective against JN.1, but not as many. “Vaccinations or recent infections decrease but do not fully eliminate the risk” from JN.1, Dr. Bloom said in an email.

It is not yet known whether JN.1 has other evolutionary advantages that might affect its ability to infect people or cause more severe illness, compared to other variants. According to the C.D.C., hospitalizations for Covid are on the rise again, but that may be because infections always increase during the winter months.

More than the risk conferred by any individual variant, it is the rapid rate of virus evolution that is most concerning to Trevor Bedford, a professor in the vaccine and infectious disease division at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center. “No single variant has been that impactful,” he said, “but the overall accumulation of these mutations is having significant impact.”

What to Know About the New Covid Variants – New York Times

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